Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics

Public director of Globalization Problem Institute

General theory of globalization

World for Russia:

the way we need it and what we can do with it

(Analytical report open part in brief)

September 1998

Contents:

|Resume |2 |

|I. Information technologies expansion |3 |

|

| On difference significance in the technological time | |

|speed | |

|1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 |

|1.3. Old technologies depreciation |10 |

|II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 |

|2.1. Competition globalization monopolies globalization |12 |

|2.2. Euro: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 |

|!2.3. Financial competition |14 |

| Technological process slowdown | |

|III. Global regulation for global competition |17 |

|3.1. What will unite the world into Economic UNO? |17 |

w6 |

|3.3. Value of global regulation |18 |

About the author in brief

Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.

From 1990 till 1993 expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since

1994 leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department,

since 1996 referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March

1997 advisor of the vice-prime-minister Minister of Internals, since

June 1997 advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his

leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a

Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new

government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the

public service.

He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany,

France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - Economy

of non-payments was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.

Resume

1. Information technologies development has brought to:

. meta-technologies creation, application of which makes it impossible

for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the

developers of these technologies;

. reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects

formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation

(transformation from high-tech to high-hume);

. acceleration of information technologies development to such extent

that short, theoretical investments are productive for the most

advanced information technologies;

. approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;

. Information society creation in which money plays second role as

compared with technologies.

7. Major humanity technological development prospects:

. Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between

developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries

and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;

. Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal

information community, its concentration in the territory of the

developed countries; slow concentration of the information community

of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress

in the most developed countries;

. progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and

financial degradation of the developing countries;

. Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global

financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and

European Currency Union.

12. Global monopolies formation is being performed:

. At global markets of separate financial instruments;

. In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the

transformation value among them to negligible level) as information

technologies advance in the form of the united global monopoly.

These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the

overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of

more malaise character.

| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of |

|economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the |

|nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two |

|fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, |

|information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition|

|globalization, primarily in the financial markets. |

!lvl0I. Information technologies expansion

1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background

Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual

creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very information

community which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that

no one takes the matter seriously.

Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive

potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly

perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.

The most important way of showing this qualitative technological

breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at

the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of

the so-called meta-technologies.

Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of

thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies

principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies

in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the

effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and

which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced

technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a

licensee.

The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:

. Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides

the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the

developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to

control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer

has bee already realized);

. Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all

telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future

computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also

wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;

. Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:

* Control technologies, including corporation activity

organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country

the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the

corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note

that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types

of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society

and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but

remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society

weaker;

* Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation

of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective

necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated

technologies which at first appear in the leading country and

then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the

society using technologies which influence it will get out of

hand of the state.

Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their

being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for

the last years have already become a technological component of the

information society: if we speak about it from the technological point of

view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities

we intend first of all meta-technologies.

It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of

new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of

information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of

this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for

information technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997

year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existing

technical means for information transparency of all countries

transparency as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for the

countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of their

global competitive advantages.

But significance of information technology distribution is not limited

by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological,

intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides

provision of global information transparency the most important part of

information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential)

for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.

The point is that unlike traditional material technologies the

product of which are the goods, the product of information technologies

nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass

conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologies

was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking it

into consideration as the major purpose for influence.

It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the

material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name.

They are called high-hume versus high-tech. In previous times

technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting to

the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity,

high-hume technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speed

of making progress.

The pioneers of their exploration the USA engage the most mobile

and in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital

venture capital to creation of the most effective type of information

technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary

technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing

countries is impossible because of slowness of the non-information

technologies: performance of any project connected with such technologies

demand for larger time period than traditionally short venture capital is

ready to be invested.

In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed

of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional

technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not

effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaves

without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation.

But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative

higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information

technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which short

venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycle

is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capital

turnover.

That is why the American economy should not be afraid of distending a

soap exchange bubble: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside.

Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the

information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of their

development carries for their recipient quite normal productive but not

venture character.

This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics

of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term

stability in the forthcoming global financial

|On difference significance in the technological time speed |

|Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently |

|demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The|

|bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new |

|technological principles demands for such period of time that these |

|principles become outdated. |

|Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the |

|sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new |

|decisions reaches the slow scale of technological time and fails as|

|compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of pure |

|sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times |

|changes in a quicker way. |

But application of high-hume technologies is connected also with

danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse

the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in the

sphere of public relations it! is the temptation to solve problems not in

the real way but with the help of the so-called brainwashing method or we

may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage.

The first problem of high-hume is connected with it: on carrying

away by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts

the process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally

important: high-hume technologies are dangerous not only for the object

of their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of

the user.

The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enough

for the user of the high-hume technology to form necessary type of

conscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of the

society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example.

Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the elite

and general mass of population and create within the society internal

disagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population.

Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept the

ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of the

intellectual potential of the society is lost while the

Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the

elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders of

the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential. We

saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 1998 years, who could

run away from the population by application such advanced information

technologies to themselves to such extent as the communists could do for

seventy years of their domination.

In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion

society should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable

but more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is not

it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the end

of XX century?

It is possible that this phenomenon is an implemented guarantee from

the informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to

one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the conscious

of other countries with the help of information technologies is impossible

because of differences in cultural aspect which automatically defend

minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation separately.

But it would be too naive to hope for it as the major resolution of the

forthcoming problems under the circumstances of gradual integration of

cultures into united culture for the whole world (On the first stage into

three major cultures Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic).

Taking into consideration a private case of information war culture

aggression (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potential

of which it does not correspond) as an instrument of international

competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way, in the order of

markets winning for sale the carries of such culture), we should re-

estimate the role playing by traditions.

Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is

the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of

reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of the

tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through

minimization of negative consequences in changes having squatter order:

attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of their

major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attack

by the information method.

* * *

The above said means that creation and distribution of meta-

technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point of

view of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have

been the main source of power earlier, now they become only its

consequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power.

Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research and

market corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over

such technologies.

Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the

background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in

the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an

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